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Al-Hazm vs Dhamk — Pro League 2025

Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dhamk
Dhamk
E. Zelaya 30' (pen)
3/12/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 24Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Hazm41%
×Draw25%
Dhamk33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hazm
1.46
Dhamk
1.29

Al-Hazm creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al-Hazm
1.15
Dhamk
0.89

allows per match

Al-Hazm
1.70
Dhamk
1.78

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw
67%
Al-Hazm or Dhamk
75%
Draw or Dhamk
59%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+
20%
Dhamk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals
77%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
43%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
18%
Dhamk 1+ goals
72%
Dhamk 2+ goals
37%
Dhamk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
55%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Dhamk away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.15 + Dhamk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dhamk attack 0.89 + Al-Hazm defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Hazm scores more
41%
level
25%
Dhamk scores more
33%

Al-Hazm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Ibrahim Al NakhliDhamkDhamk · D
8.0

Match Events

28'
El Arbi Hillel SoudaniPenalty awarded
30'
E. ZelayaPenalty
40'
Fahad Al-Obaid← Farhan Al-Aazmi
54'
Ammar Al Najjar
57'
L. Stojanović← O. John
59'
Bader Munshi← Ammar Al Najjar
76'
Y. Omar← Saud Zidan
76'
Ahmed Al-Juwaid← Abdulelah Al Shammry
82'
Abdullah Al Hawsawi← Mansor Hamzi
82'
Abdulrahman Al Yami← E. Zelaya
85'
Ahmad Al-Najei
90+1'
Abdurahman Al-Dakheel
90+1'
Domagoj Antolić
90+3'
Waleed Hizam Al Enezi← H. Soudani
90+2'
Abdullah Al-Burayh← Nono

Possession

69%Al-Hazm

Shots

19Al-Hazm

Pass accuracy

58%Al-Hazm

Statistics

Al-HazmDhamk
Overview
69%Possession31%
19Total Shots4
10Corners1
16Fouls25
Shots
19Total Shots4
7On Target3
5Off Target1
7Blocked0
12Inside Box4
7Outside Box0
Passing
69%Possession31%
530Total Passes244
466Accurate Passes159
88%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls25
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Al-Hazm vs Dhamk

Dhamk beat Al-Hazm 1-0 in Pro League on March 12, 2022.

Goals: E. Zelaya (30' pen).

Al-Hazm controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.