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Dalton Red Wolves vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2018

Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
FT
1 – 0
Asheville City
Asheville City
5/19/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6Lakeshore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves25%
×Draw23%
Asheville City52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalton Red Wolves
1.21
Asheville City
1.83

Asheville City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
Asheville City
2.21

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
Asheville City
0.95

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw
48%
Dalton Red Wolves or Asheville City
77%
Draw or Asheville City
75%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
10%
Asheville City wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
70%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
34%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
12%
Asheville City 1+ goals
84%
Asheville City 2+ goals
54%
Asheville City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
33%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + Asheville City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Asheville City attack 2.21 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more
25%
level
23%
Asheville City scores more
52%

Asheville City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Dalton Red Wolves 1–0 Asheville City

Dalton Red Wolves beat Asheville City 1-0 in USL League Two on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Lakeshore Park in Dalton, Georgia.