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Asheville City vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Asheville City
Asheville City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
5/20/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 7Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Asheville City66%
×Draw19%
Dalton Red Wolves15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asheville City
2.22
Dalton Red Wolves
0.95

Asheville City creates 134% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

creates per match

Asheville City
2.57
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Asheville City
0.61
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw
85%
Asheville City or Dalton Red Wolves
81%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
34%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+
42%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals
89%
Asheville City 2+ goals
65%
Asheville City 3+ goals
38%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
61%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
25%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)
81%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.57 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.22

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Asheville City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Asheville City scores more
66%
level
19%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
15%

Asheville City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Asheville City 3–1 Dalton Red Wolves

Asheville City beat Dalton Red Wolves 3-1 in USL League Two on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Asheville, North Carolina.