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Cesena vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bari
Bari
C. Ciano 55'
A. Floro Flores 17'
2/11/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 25Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Cesena55%
×Draw23%
Bari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.83
Bari
1.07

Cesena creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.80
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Cesena
1.42
Bari
1.86

finishing

Cesena-0.27scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
78%
Cesena or Bari
77%
Draw or Bari
45%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
31%
Bari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
84%
Cesena 2+ goals
54%
Cesena 3+ goals
28%
Bari 1+ goals
66%
Bari 2+ goals
29%
Bari 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
71%
Bari (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.42 · 15 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.80 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bari attack 0.72 + Cesena defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cesena scores more
55%
level
23%
Bari scores more
22%

Cesena at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Floro Flores↳ F. Brienza
30'
Archimede Morleo
54'
Migjen Basha
55'
C. Ciano
66'
Roman Macek
72'
Andrea Schiavone
72'
L. Greco← A. Salzano
74'
M. Crimi← A. Schiavone
77'
Marco Crimi
82'
M. Romizi← F. Brienza
86'
F. Raicevic← A. Floro Flores
88'
Stefano Sabelli
90+2'
Alejandro Rodriguez← C. Ciano
90'
M. Vitale← L. Garritano

Possession

51%Cesena

Shots

7Cesena

Statistics

CesenaBari
Overview
51%Possession49%
7Total Shots4
6Corners3
26Fouls21
Shots
7Total Shots4
3On Target2
4Off Target2
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
26Fouls21
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Bari

Cesena and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 11, 2017.

Goals: A. Floro Flores (17'), C. Ciano (55').

Cesena controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.