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Cesena vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bari
Bari
R. Ciervo 60'
G. Moncini 76'
E. Rao 51'
1/24/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena57%
×Draw23%
Bari20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.81
Bari
0.97

Cesena creates 87% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.75
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Cesena
1.22
Bari
1.86

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
80%
Cesena or Bari
77%
Draw or Bari
43%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
33%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
84%
Cesena 2+ goals
54%
Cesena 3+ goals
27%
Bari 1+ goals
62%
Bari 2+ goals
25%
Bari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
74%
Bari (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bari attack 0.72 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cesena scores more
57%
level
23%
Bari scores more
20%

Cesena at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. CiervoCesenaCesena · M
7.9

Match Events

37'
Andrea Cistana
51'
E. Rao↳ M. Dorval
60'
R. Ciervo↳ C. Shpendi
63'
L. Dickmann← C. Gytkjaer
63'
G. Moncini← E. Rao
69'
R. Pagano← M. Mane
72'
Giacomo De Pieri
73'
V. Magni← D. Bisoli
74'
Vittorio Magni
76'
G. Moncini↳ D. Nikolaou
80'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
81'
R. Celia← M. Mangraviti
81'
M. Guidi← A. Ciofi
81'
N. Bellomo← M. Verreth
82'
Gabriele Moncini
82'
V. Colangiuli← G. De Pieri

Possession

63%Cesena

Shots

16Cesena

Pass accuracy

52%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaBari
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots6
2.20Expected Goals (xG)0.61
16Corners1
10Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots6
8On Target4
6Off Target1
2Blocked1
8Inside Box5
8Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
516Total Passes319
442Accurate Passes250
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Serie B: Cesena 1–2 Bari

Bari beat Cesena 2-1 in Serie B on January 24, 2026.

Goals: E. Rao (51'), R. Ciervo (60'), G. Moncini (76').

Cesena controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.