Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bari vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
C. Gytkjaer 79'
11/2/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 11Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bari45%
×Draw27%
Cesena28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.41
Cesena
1.04

Bari creates 36% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bari
1.26
Cesena
1.00

allows per match

Bari
1.08
Cesena
1.56

finishing

Bari+0.00on par
Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bari or draw
72%
Bari or Cesena
73%
Draw or Cesena
55%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
22%
Cesena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
76%
Bari 2+ goals
41%
Bari 3+ goals
17%
Cesena 1+ goals
65%
Cesena 2+ goals
28%
Cesena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
62%
Cesena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.26 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cesena attack 1.00 + Bari defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bari scores more
45%
level
27%
Cesena scores more
28%

Bari at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
M. CerofoliniBariBari · G
7.9

Match Events

17'
M. Verreth← E. Darboe
58'
C. Gytkjaer← M. Antonucci
58'
M. Braunoder← G. Maggiore
58'
E. Adamo← G. Frabotta
64'
S. Bastoni← M. Castagnetti
64'
S. Balde← C. Shpendi
69'
Riccardo Ciervo
72'
Andrea Meroni
78'
A. Partipilo← G. Castrovilli
78'
L. Cerri← G. Moncini
79'
C. Gytkjaer↳ L. Dickmann
81'
R. Celia← R. Ciervo
81'
M. Olivieri← T. Berti

Possession

44%Bari

Shots

9Bari

Pass accuracy

48%Bari

Statistics

BariCesena
Overview
44%Possession56%
9Total Shots8
3Corners4
8Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target3
2Off Target0
4Blocked5
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
404Total Passes522
333Accurate Passes458
82%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Bari vs Cesena

Bari beat Cesena 1-0 in Serie B on November 2, 2025.

Goals: C. Gytkjaer (79').

Cesena controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari.