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Dalkurd FF vs Assyriska FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
10/24/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 26Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dalkurd FF61%
×Draw20%
Assyriska FF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
2.12
Assyriska FF
1.07

Dalkurd FF creates 98% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
2.13
Assyriska FF
1.21

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
0.93
Assyriska FF
2.10

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
82%
Dalkurd FF or Assyriska FF
80%
Draw or Assyriska FF
39%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
38%
Assyriska FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
88%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
62%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
35%
Assyriska FF 1+ goals
66%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
29%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
77%
Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 2.13 + Assyriska FF defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.12

Assyriska FF attack 1.21 + Dalkurd FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
61%
level
20%
Assyriska FF scores more
18%

Dalkurd FF at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Dalkurd FF 5–0 Assyriska FF

Dalkurd FF beat Assyriska FF 5-0 in Ettan - Norra on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.