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Assyriska FF vs Dalkurd FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
5/16/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 7Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Assyriska FF36%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska FF
1.53
Dalkurd FF
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Assyriska FF
1.69
Dalkurd FF
1.50

allows per match

Assyriska FF
1.75
Dalkurd FF
1.37

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw
60%
Assyriska FF or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
64%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+
17%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals
78%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
45%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
20%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
80%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
48%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
47%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 1.69 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Assyriska FF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Assyriska FF scores more
36%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
40%

Dalkurd FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assyriska FF vs Dalkurd FF

Assyriska FF beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 in Ettan - Norra on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.