Dalkurd FF 0–4 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

AIK Stockholm

9/30/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 24Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF29%

×Draw24%

AIK Stockholm47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.67

Dalkurd FF

1.25

AIK Stockholm

1.67

AIK Stockholm creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

1.20

creates per match

1.28

2.07

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.20

AIK Stockholm

1.28

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

2.07

AIK Stockholm

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

53%

Dalkurd FF or AIK Stockholm

76%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

71%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

12%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

71%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

36%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

13%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

81%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

50%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

38%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

AIK Stockholm attack 1.28 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

29%

level

24%

AIK Stockholm scores more

47%

AIK Stockholm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff