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AIK Stockholm vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
4/2/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 1Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AIK Stockholm57%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.63
Dalkurd FF
0.80

AIK Stockholm creates 104% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.53
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.80
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
82%
AIK Stockholm or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
43%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
31%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
80%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
48%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
22%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
55%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
19%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
76%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 125 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.53 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
57%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
18%

AIK Stockholm at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 2–0 Dalkurd FF

AIK Stockholm beat Dalkurd FF 2-0 in Allsvenskan on April 2, 2018.

The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.