Dalkeith Thistle 0–7 Clydebank: Result & Stats

Dalkeith Thistle

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Clydebank

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundKings Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dalkeith Thistle5%

×Draw8%

Clydebank87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkeith ThistleExpected goals in this matchClydebank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

3.75

Dalkeith Thistle

0.82

Clydebank

3.75

Clydebank creates 357% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

4.00

3.50

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dalkeith Thistle

0.50

Clydebank

4.00

allows per match

Dalkeith Thistle

3.50

Clydebank

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Clydebank+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkeith Thistle ↓

Clydebank →

0–01%

0–14%

0–28%

0–310%

0–49%

1–01%

1–13%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Dalkeith Thistle or draw

13%

Dalkeith Thistle or Clydebank

92%

Draw or Clydebank

95%

Winning margin

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+

Clydebank wins by 2+

72%

Team goals

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals

56%

Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals

20%

Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals

Clydebank 1+ goals

97%

Clydebank 2+ goals

88%

Clydebank 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)

Clydebank (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dalkeith Thistle at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Clydebank away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dalkeith Thistle attack 0.50 + Clydebank defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Clydebank attack 4.00 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Dalkeith Thistle scores more

level

Clydebank scores more

87%

Clydebank at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff