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Clydebank vs Dalkeith Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Clydebank
Clydebank
FT
7 – 0
Dalkeith Thistle
Dalkeith Thistle
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundHolm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Clydebank74%
×Draw14%
Dalkeith Thistle11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clydebank
3.04
Dalkeith Thistle
1.14

Clydebank creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Clydebank
3.33
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50

allows per match

Clydebank
0.78
Dalkeith Thistle
2.75

finishing

Clydebank+0.00on par
Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clydebank ↓

Dalkeith Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Clydebank or draw
89%
Clydebank or Dalkeith Thistle
86%
Draw or Dalkeith Thistle
26%

Winning margin

Clydebank wins by 2+
55%
Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Clydebank 1+ goals
95%
Clydebank 2+ goals
80%
Clydebank 3+ goals
57%
Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals
68%
Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals
32%
Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Clydebank (draw refunded)
87%
Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clydebank at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Dalkeith Thistle away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clydebank attack 3.33 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Dalkeith Thistle attack 1.50 + Clydebank defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Clydebank scores more
74%
level
14%
Dalkeith Thistle scores more
11%

Clydebank at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clydebank vs Dalkeith Thistle

Clydebank beat Dalkeith Thistle 7-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Holm Park in Clydebank.