Dalian Zhixing 0–2 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Dalian Zhixing

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Beijing Guoan

F. Abreu 22'

Wang Ziming 19'

5/5/2025

Super League · Round 11Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Dalian Zhixing42%

×Draw25%

Beijing Guoan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.35

Dalian Zhixing

1.54

Beijing Guoan

1.35

Dalian Zhixing creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.59

creates per match

1.56

1.15

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.59

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.15

Beijing Guoan

1.48

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Dalian Zhixing-0.24scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

67%

Dalian Zhixing or Beijing Guoan

75%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

58%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

21%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

79%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

45%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

20%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

74%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

39%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

56%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 17 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.59 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

42%

level

25%

Beijing Guoan scores more

33%

Dalian Zhixing at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guga

Beijing Guoan · M

8.6

Match Events

19'

Wang Ziming↳ Guga

22'

F. Abreu

46'

Yang Mingrui← Liu Zhurun

46'

Zhao Xuebin← Fei Yu

46'

Fernando Karanga← Wen Jiabao

56'

Xuebin Zhao

69'

Cao Haiqing← P. Zhu

74'

Serginho← Wang Ziming

74'

Fang Hao← Cao Yongjing

82'

Wu Shaocong← Wang Gang

82'

Zhang Yuning← F. Abreu

83'

Yuan Zhang

86'

Liu Yi← W. Mao

88'

Li Ruiyue← Zhang Yuan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DalianBeijing

Overview

30%Possession70%

8Total Shots11

0.23Expected Goals (xG)2.12

7Corners1

23Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box1

Passing

30%Possession70%

238Total Passes608

152Accurate Passes535

64%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0