Beijing Guoan 3–0 Dalian Zhixing: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalian Zhixing

Lin Liangming 65'

Huang Shan 58' (OG)

G. Ramos 54'

5/6/2026

Super League · Round 10Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Beijing Guoan52%

×Draw23%

Dalian Zhixing25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.20

Beijing Guoan

1.85

Dalian Zhixing

1.20

Beijing Guoan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

2.04

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.04

Dalian Zhixing

1.23

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.17

Dalian Zhixing

1.67

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more

Dalian Zhixing-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

75%

Beijing Guoan or Dalian Zhixing

77%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

48%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

30%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

84%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

55%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

28%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

70%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

34%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

68%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.23 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

52%

level

23%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

25%

Beijing Guoan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Serginho

Beijing Guoan · F

9.0

Match Events

6'

Weijie Mao

13'

Yang Mingrui

45+2'

Yongjing Cao

45'

Yongjing CaoCard upgrade

46'

Lin Liangming← Yue Tze-Nam

46'

F. Abreu← Zhang Yuning

46'

Lu Zhuoyi← W. Mao

46'

Huang Shan← Li Ang

47'

Kangbo Sun

54'

G. Ramos↳ Serginho

58'

Huang ShanOwn goal

61'

Luo Jing

63'

Fabio AbreuMissed penalty

65'

Lin Liangming↳ Bai Yang

68'

Lu Peng← Luo Jing

70'

Abdugheni Abduhamit← Dawhan

71'

Wang Yu← Zhang Xizhe

74'

Peng Shunjie← Bi Jinhao

80'

C. Zhang← Yang Mingrui

86'

J. Deng← Serginho

87'

Peng Lü

90+2'

Wang Yu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingDalian

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots9

2.66Expected Goals (xG)0.74

4Corners2

12Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots9

8On Target5

6Off Target3

2Blocked1

14Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

487Total Passes350

423Accurate Passes274

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2