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Dalian Huayi vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2026

Dalian Huayi
Dalian Huayi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
10/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 26Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dalian Huayi54%
×Draw25%
Shanghai Jiading21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Huayi
1.58
Shanghai Jiading
0.87

Dalian Huayi creates 82% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dalian Huayi
1.55
Shanghai Jiading
0.65

allows per match

Dalian Huayi
1.09
Shanghai Jiading
1.61

finishing

Dalian Huayi+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Huayi ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dalian Huayi or draw
79%
Dalian Huayi or Shanghai Jiading
75%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
46%

Winning margin

Dalian Huayi wins by 2+
29%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dalian Huayi 1+ goals
79%
Dalian Huayi 2+ goals
47%
Dalian Huayi 3+ goals
21%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
58%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
22%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dalian Huayi (draw refunded)
72%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Huayi at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Huayi attack 1.55 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.65 + Dalian Huayi defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dalian Huayi scores more
54%
level
25%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
21%

Dalian Huayi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dalian Huayi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Huayi vs Shanghai Jiading

Shanghai Jiading beat Dalian Huayi 2-1 in League One on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium in Dalian.