Dalian Huayi 1–4 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Dalian Huayi

1 – 4

Shanghai Jiading

3/10/2019

FA Cup · 1st RoundDalian Maritime University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dalian Huayi29%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Jiading48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian HuayiExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.85

Dalian Huayi

1.40

Shanghai Jiading

1.85

Shanghai Jiading creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

2.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dalian Huayi

1.00

Shanghai Jiading

1.20

allows per match

Dalian Huayi

2.50

Shanghai Jiading

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Huayi+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Huayi ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dalian Huayi or draw

52%

Dalian Huayi or Shanghai Jiading

77%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

71%

Winning margin

Dalian Huayi wins by 2+

13%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Dalian Huayi 1+ goals

75%

Dalian Huayi 2+ goals

41%

Dalian Huayi 3+ goals

17%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

84%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

55%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dalian Huayi (draw refunded)

38%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dalian Huayi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Huayi attack 1.00 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.20 + Dalian Huayi defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dalian Huayi scores more

29%

level

23%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

48%

Shanghai Jiading at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff