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Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
9/14/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dalian Aerbin34%
×Draw26%
Shanghai Shenhua40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.29
Shanghai Shenhua
1.42

Shanghai Shenhua creates 10% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 119 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Shanghai Shenhua
1.43

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua
1.23

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
60%
Dalian Aerbin or Shanghai Shenhua
74%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
66%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
15%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
72%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
37%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
14%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
76%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
41%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
46%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
34%
level
26%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
40%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua

Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in Super League on September 14, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.