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Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
11/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dalian Aerbin50%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.66
Beijing Renhe
1.10

Dalian Aerbin creates 51% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
75%
Dalian Aerbin or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
50%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
27%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
81%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
49%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
23%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
67%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
30%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
67%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
50%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
25%

Dalian Aerbin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dalian Aerbin 1–2 Beijing Renhe

Beijing Renhe beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 in Super League on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium in Dalian.