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Beijing Renhe vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
7/21/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe40%
×Draw25%
Dalian Aerbin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.51
Dalian Aerbin
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
64%
Beijing Renhe or Dalian Aerbin
75%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
60%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
19%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
78%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
44%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
19%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
76%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
41%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
53%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.51

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
40%
level
25%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
36%

Beijing Renhe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Renhe 3–1 Dalian Aerbin

Beijing Renhe beat Dalian Aerbin 3-1 in Super League on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.