Dakota 6–1 Brazil Juniors: Result & Stats

Dakota

FT

6 – 1

Brazil Juniors

10/21/2019

Division di Honor · Round 4Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dakota75%

×Draw14%

Brazil Juniors11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DakotaExpected goals in this matchBrazil Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.25

Dakota

3.25

Brazil Juniors

1.25

Dakota creates 160% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 16 away

2.81

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

3.69

creates per match

Dakota

2.81

Brazil Juniors

1.25

allows per match

Dakota

1.25

Brazil Juniors

3.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dakota+0.00on par

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dakota ↓

Brazil Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Dakota or draw

89%

Dakota or Brazil Juniors

86%

Draw or Brazil Juniors

25%

Winning margin

Dakota wins by 2+

56%

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dakota 1+ goals

96%

Dakota 2+ goals

83%

Dakota 3+ goals

61%

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals

71%

Brazil Juniors 2+ goals

36%

Brazil Juniors 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dakota (draw refunded)

87%

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dakota at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dakota attack 2.81 + Brazil Juniors defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 3.25

Brazil Juniors attack 1.25 + Dakota defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dakota scores more

75%

level

14%

Brazil Juniors scores more

11%

Dakota at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff