Brazil Juniors 0–10 Dakota: Result & Stats

Brazil Juniors

FT

0 – 10

Dakota

4/23/2015

Division di Honor · Round 18Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brazil Juniors13%

×Draw14%

Dakota73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brazil JuniorsExpected goals in this matchDakota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

3.17

Brazil Juniors

1.31

Dakota

3.17

Dakota creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

1.68

creates per match

3.38

2.95

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Brazil Juniors

1.68

Dakota

3.38

allows per match

Brazil Juniors

2.95

Dakota

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

Dakota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw

27%

Brazil Juniors or Dakota

86%

Draw or Dakota

87%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+

5%

Dakota wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals

73%

Brazil Juniors 2+ goals

38%

Brazil Juniors 3+ goals

14%

Dakota 1+ goals

96%

Dakota 2+ goals

82%

Dakota 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)

15%

Dakota (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.38, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.68 + Dakota defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dakota attack 3.38 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more

13%

level

14%

Dakota scores more

73%

Dakota at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff