Daejeon Korail 1–1 Sangju Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Daejeon Korail

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sangju Sangmu FC

Lee Geun-Won 90'

Ryu Seung-Woo 76'

9/18/2019

FA Cup · Semi-finalsDaejeon Hanbat Stadium (Daejeon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daejeon Korail40%

×Draw28%

Sangju Sangmu FC32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon KorailExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Daejeon Korail

1.27

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.11

Daejeon Korail creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.54

creates per match

1.60

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Daejeon Korail

1.54

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.60

allows per match

Daejeon Korail

0.62

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw

68%

Daejeon Korail or Sangju Sangmu FC

72%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

60%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+

18%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals

72%

Daejeon Korail 2+ goals

36%

Daejeon Korail 3+ goals

14%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

67%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

30%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)

55%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.54 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more

40%

level

28%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

32%

Daejeon Korail at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

Ryu Seung-Woo

79'

Kim Jung-Joo

80'

Kim Tae-Eun

90'

Ma Sang-Hoon

90'

Lee Geun-Won

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff