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Daejeon Korail vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — FA Cup 2019

Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K. Minhyuk 66'
Kang Hyun-Muk 90+4'
Lee Young-Jun 59'
3/30/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDaejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daejeon Korail40%
×Draw28%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Korail
1.27
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.11

Daejeon Korail creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Daejeon Korail
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.60

allows per match

Daejeon Korail
0.62
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.00

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw
68%
Daejeon Korail or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
72%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
60%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
18%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
72%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
36%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
67%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
30%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
55%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.54 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more
40%
level
28%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
32%

Daejeon Korail at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
Lee Young-Jun
66'
K. Minhyuk
90+4'
Kang Hyun-Muk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Daejeon Korail 1–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daejeon Korail 2-1 in FA Cup on March 30, 2023.

Goals: Lee Young-Jun (59'), K. Minhyuk (66'), Kang Hyun-Muk (90+4').

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium in Daejeon.