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Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Champions League 2018

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motorsadvanced
8/18/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Urawa Komaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC54%
×Draw21%
Jeonbuk Motors25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
2.05
Jeonbuk Motors
1.33

Daegu FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
2.78
Jeonbuk Motors
1.77

allows per match

Daegu FC
0.89
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
75%
Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors
79%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
46%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
32%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
87%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
61%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
33%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
74%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
38%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
69%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.05

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Daegu FC scores more
54%
level
21%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
25%

Daegu FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Urawa Komaba Stadium in Saitama.