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Daegu FC vs Ceres — AFC Champions League 2018

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
6/29/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 2Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC81%
×Draw12%
Ceres7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
3.04
Ceres
0.79

Daegu FC creates 285% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
2.78
Ceres
0.70

allows per match

Daegu FC
0.89
Ceres
3.30

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
93%
Daegu FC or Ceres
88%
Draw or Ceres
19%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
62%
Ceres wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
95%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
80%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
57%
Ceres 1+ goals
55%
Ceres 2+ goals
19%
Ceres 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
92%
Ceres (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Ceres away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Ceres defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 3.04

Ceres attack 0.70 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Daegu FC scores more
81%
level
12%
Ceres scores more
7%

Daegu FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Daegu FC 7 – 0 Ceres

Daegu FC beat Ceres 7-0 in AFC Champions League on June 29, 2021.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.