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Ceres vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
7/11/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 6Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceres15%
×Draw19%
Daegu FC66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
0.97
Daegu FC
2.27

Daegu FC creates 134% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ceres
0.75
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Ceres
2.25
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
34%
Ceres or Daegu FC
81%
Draw or Daegu FC
85%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
5%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
62%
Ceres 2+ goals
25%
Ceres 3+ goals
7%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
90%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
66%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
18%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ceres scores more
15%
level
19%
Daegu FC scores more
66%

Daegu FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ceres 0–4 Daegu FC

Daegu FC beat Ceres 4-0 in AFC Champions League on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.