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Daegu FC vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Champions League 2018

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
7/2/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 3Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC69%
×Draw18%
Beijing Guoan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
2.39
Beijing Guoan
0.95

Daegu FC creates 152% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
2.78
Beijing Guoan
1.00

allows per match

Daegu FC
0.89
Beijing Guoan
2.00

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
87%
Daegu FC or Beijing Guoan
82%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
31%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
46%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
91%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
69%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
42%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
61%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
25%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
84%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.39

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Daegu FC scores more
69%
level
18%
Beijing Guoan scores more
13%

Daegu FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Daegu FC 5–0 Beijing Guoan

Daegu FC beat Beijing Guoan 5-0 in AFC Champions League on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.