Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beijing Guoan vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
7/5/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 4Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan23%
×Draw22%
Daegu FC56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.20
Daegu FC
2.00

Daegu FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
1.20
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.70
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
44%
Beijing Guoan or Daegu FC
78%
Draw or Daegu FC
77%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
9%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
70%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
34%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
12%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
86%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
59%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
29%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
23%
level
22%
Daegu FC scores more
56%

Daegu FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Daegu FC

Daegu FC beat Beijing Guoan 3-0 in AFC Champions League on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.