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Dacia Unirea Braila vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
9/29/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila21%
×Draw24%
Chindia Targoviste56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.97
Chindia Targoviste
1.75

Chindia Targoviste creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
44%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Chindia Targoviste
76%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
79%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
7%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
62%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
25%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
7%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
83%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
52%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
27%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
21%
level
24%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
56%

Chindia Targoviste at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 0–1 Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat Dacia Unirea Braila 1-0 in Liga II on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).