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Chindia Targoviste vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
4/5/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 28Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste80%
×Draw12%
Dacia Unirea Braila7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
3.07
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.85

Chindia Targoviste creates 261% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
93%
Chindia Targoviste or Dacia Unirea Braila
88%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
20%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
61%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
95%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
80%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
58%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
57%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
21%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
92%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 3.07

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
80%
level
12%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
7%

Chindia Targoviste at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 3–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

Chindia Targoviste beat Dacia Unirea Braila 3-0 in Liga II on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).