Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dacia Unirea Braila vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
10/20/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 13Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila37%
×Draw24%
Aerostar Bacau39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.56
Aerostar Bacau
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
61%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Aerostar Bacau
76%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
63%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
18%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
79%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
46%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
21%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
80%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
48%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
49%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
37%
level
24%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
39%

Aerostar Bacau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 3–3 Aerostar Bacau

Dacia Unirea Braila and Aerostar Bacau drew 3-3 in Liga II on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).