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Aerostar Bacau vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
4/26/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 32Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aerostar Bacau73%
×Draw15%
Dacia Unirea Braila13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
2.94
Dacia Unirea Braila
1.17

Aerostar Bacau creates 151% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
87%
Aerostar Bacau or Dacia Unirea Braila
85%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
27%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
52%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
95%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
79%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
55%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
69%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
33%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
85%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.94

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
73%
level
15%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
13%

Aerostar Bacau at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 9–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

Aerostar Bacau beat Dacia Unirea Braila 9-0 in Liga II on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău).