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Dacia Unirea Braila vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
12/8/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 21Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila38%
×Draw25%
ACS Poli Timisoara37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.45
ACS Poli Timisoara
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
63%
Dacia Unirea Braila or ACS Poli Timisoara
75%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
62%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
18%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
77%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
42%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
18%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
76%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
41%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
51%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
38%
level
25%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
37%

Dacia Unirea Braila at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dacia Unirea Braila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 2–0 ACS Poli Timisoara

Dacia Unirea Braila beat ACS Poli Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).