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ACS Poli Timisoara vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
8/12/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara70%
×Draw17%
Dacia Unirea Braila14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Poli Timisoara
2.63
Dacia Unirea Braila
1.10

ACS Poli Timisoara creates 139% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.05
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.53
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw
86%
ACS Poli Timisoara or Dacia Unirea Braila
83%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
30%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
48%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
93%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
73%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
48%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
67%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
30%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
83%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.63

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
70%
level
17%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
14%

ACS Poli Timisoara at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "ACS Poli Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Poli Timisoara 2–2 Dacia Unirea Braila

ACS Poli Timisoara and Dacia Unirea Braila drew 2-2 in Liga II on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).