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Dabas vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Dabas
Dabas
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
3/13/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 25FC Dabas Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dabas54%
×Draw23%
Cegledi VSE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dabas
1.83
Cegledi VSE
1.12

Dabas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dabas
1.56
Cegledi VSE
1.06

allows per match

Dabas
1.18
Cegledi VSE
2.11

finishing

Dabas+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dabas ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dabas or draw
77%
Dabas or Cegledi VSE
77%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
46%

Winning margin

Dabas wins by 2+
30%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dabas 1+ goals
84%
Dabas 2+ goals
54%
Dabas 3+ goals
28%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
67%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
31%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dabas (draw refunded)
70%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dabas at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dabas attack 1.56 + Cegledi VSE defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cegledi VSE attack 1.06 + Dabas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dabas scores more
54%
level
23%
Cegledi VSE scores more
23%

Dabas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dabas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dabas vs Cegledi VSE

Dabas beat Cegledi VSE 5-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at FC Dabas Sporttelep in Dabas.