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Cegledi VSE vs Dabas — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dabas
Dabas
5/19/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 29Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE17%
×Draw18%
Dabas65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
1.18
Dabas
2.47

Dabas creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
Dabas
1.47

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
Dabas
1.56

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Dabas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Dabas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
35%
Cegledi VSE or Dabas
82%
Draw or Dabas
83%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
6%
Dabas wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
69%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
33%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
12%
Dabas 1+ goals
91%
Dabas 2+ goals
70%
Dabas 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
20%
Dabas (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

Dabas away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + Dabas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dabas attack 1.47 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
17%
level
18%
Dabas scores more
65%

Dabas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dabas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Cegledi VSE 2–4 Dabas

Dabas beat Cegledi VSE 4-2 in NB III - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.