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D. Puerto Montt vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Concón National
Concón National
8/4/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Puerto Montt50%
×Draw24%
Concón National26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Puerto Montt
1.72
Concón National
1.19

D. Puerto Montt creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt
1.96
Concón National
1.65

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt
0.72
Concón National
1.48

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par
Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Concón National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw
74%
D. Puerto Montt or Concón National
76%
Draw or Concón National
50%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
27%
Concón National wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
82%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
51%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
25%
Concón National 1+ goals
70%
Concón National 2+ goals
33%
Concón National 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
65%
Concón National (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.96 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.72

Concón National attack 1.65 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more
50%
level
24%
Concón National scores more
26%

D. Puerto Montt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Puerto Montt 3–1 Concón National

D. Puerto Montt beat Concón National 3-1 in Segunda División on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue in Puerto Montt.