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Concón National vs D. Puerto Montt — Segunda División 2020

Concón National
Concón National
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
3/26/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Concón National32%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concón National
1.13
D. Puerto Montt
1.31

D. Puerto Montt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

Concón National
1.26
D. Puerto Montt
1.44

allows per match

Concón National
1.19
D. Puerto Montt
1.00

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Concón National or draw
59%
Concón National or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
68%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+
13%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals
68%
Concón National 2+ goals
31%
Concón National 3+ goals
11%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
73%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
38%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)
44%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.44 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Concón National scores more
32%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
41%

D. Puerto Montt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concón National vs D. Puerto Montt

D. Puerto Montt beat Concón National 3-0 in Segunda División on March 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.