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D. Melipilla vs Everton de Vina — Copa Chile 2019

D. Melipilla
D. Melipillaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
6/23/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

D. Melipilla33%
×Draw34%
Everton de Vina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
0.85
Everton de Vina
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
0.60
Everton de Vina
1.33

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.40
Everton de Vina
1.11

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
67%
D. Melipilla or Everton de Vina
66%
Draw or Everton de Vina
67%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
11%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
57%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
21%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
5%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
58%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
21%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
50%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 0.60 + Everton de Vina defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Everton de Vina attack 1.33 + D. Melipilla defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
33%
level
34%
Everton de Vina scores more
33%

D. Melipilla at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Everton de Vina

D. Melipilla beat Everton de Vina 2-1 in Copa Chile on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.