D. Melipilla 1–0 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton de Vina

11/27/2021

Primera División · Round 33Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. Melipilla41%

×Draw26%

Everton de Vina33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.24

D. Melipilla

1.42

Everton de Vina

1.24

D. Melipilla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 127 away

1.44

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.44

Everton de Vina

1.17

allows per match

D. Melipilla

1.31

Everton de Vina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

67%

D. Melipilla or Everton de Vina

74%

Draw or Everton de Vina

59%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

20%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

76%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

41%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

17%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

71%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

35%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

56%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.44 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + D. Melipilla defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

41%

level

26%

Everton de Vina scores more

33%

D. Melipilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: D. Melipilla 1–0 Everton de Vina

D. Melipilla beat Everton de Vina 1-0 in Primera División on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.

D. Melipilla vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: D. Melipilla 1–0 Everton de Vina