D. La Serena 3–0 Union La Calera: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Union La Calera

M. Marin 90'

D. Rubio 41'

G. Escalante 38'

3/6/2026

Primera División · Round 6Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena46%

×Draw25%

Union La Calera29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.21

D. La Serena

1.57

Union La Calera

1.21

D. La Serena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

1.48

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.41

Union La Calera

0.95

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.48

Union La Calera

1.73

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less

Union La Calera+0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

71%

D. La Serena or Union La Calera

75%

Draw or Union La Calera

54%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

23%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

79%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

46%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

21%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

70%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

34%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

61%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Union La Calera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Union La Calera attack 0.95 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

D. La Serena scores more

46%

level

25%

Union La Calera scores more

29%

D. La Serena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Vargas

D. La Serena · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Yerko Leiva

12'

Felipe Chamorro

29'

Gonzalo EscalanteGoal cancelled

38'

G. Escalante↳ J. Vargas

41'

52'

58'

58'

60'

J. Cruz← C. Villanueva

60'

F. Pozzo← A. Encinas

60'

J. Soto← C. Moya

64'

N. Stefanelli← J. Gutierrez

67'

Bruno Gutiérrez

68'

J. Saldias← C. Gutierrez

72'

Rodrigo Caseres

73'

M. Marin← F. Chamorro

85'

B. Oyarzo Munoz← C. Diaz

90+2'

Joan Cruz

90'

J. Orellana← F. Mac Allister

90'

C. Sepulveda← D. Rubio

90'

M. Marin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Union

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots13

2Corners10

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked6

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

349Total Passes473

266Accurate Passes382

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3