Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. La Serena vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
S. Gallegos 50'
3/16/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena46%
×Draw25%
Union La Calera29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.57
Union La Calera
1.21

D. La Serena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.41
Union La Calera
0.95

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.48
Union La Calera
1.73

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less
Union La Calera+0.05on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
71%
D. La Serena or Union La Calera
75%
Draw or Union La Calera
54%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
23%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
79%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
46%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
21%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
70%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
34%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
61%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Union La Calera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Union La Calera attack 0.95 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

D. La Serena scores more
46%
level
25%
Union La Calera scores more
29%

D. La Serena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
S. GallegosD. La SerenaD. La Serena · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
Felipe Chamorro
31'
Nahuel Brunet
34'
Erik De Los Santos
42'
Jhonatan Kauan
50'
S. Gallegos
58'
F. Lopez← F. Rivera
62'
E. Moreira← F. Chamorro
65'
C. Moya← A. Alvarez Wallace
65'
J. E. Mendez Gonzalez← E. De Los Santos
65'
F. Lobos← I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
68'
Diego Ulloa
76'
G. A. Jara Gonzalez← L. Ovando
76'
F. Diaz← Jhonatan Kauan
80'
Sebastian Gallegos
83'
N. Ferreyra← A. Henriquez
83'
M. Rivera← S. Gallegos
87'
F. Yanez← D. Ulloa
90'
Felipe Yáñez

Possession

37%D.

Shots

13D.

Pass accuracy

47%D.

Statistics

D.Union
Overview
37%Possession63%
13Total Shots7
1Corners9
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target2
4Off Target5
5Blocked0
3Inside Box2
10Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
291Total Passes470
219Accurate Passes392
75%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4

Primera División: D. La Serena 1–0 Union La Calera

D. La Serena beat Union La Calera 1-0 in Primera División on March 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Gallegos (50').

Union La Calera controlled possession (63%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.