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D. La Serena vs O'Higgins — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
E. Moreira 90'
J. Vargas 54', 45'
E. Calderon 90', 82'
N. Ferreyra 60' (OG)
8/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

D. La Serena37%
×Draw27%
O'Higgins37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.27
O'Higgins
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 114 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.18
O'Higgins
1.21

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.34
O'Higgins
1.37

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

O'Higgins →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
63%
D. La Serena or O'Higgins
73%
Draw or O'Higgins
63%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
16%
O'Higgins wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
72%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
36%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
14%
O'Higgins 1+ goals
72%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
36%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
50%
O'Higgins (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 68 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.18 + O'Higgins defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

O'Higgins attack 1.21 + D. La Serena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

D. La Serena scores more
37%
level
27%
O'Higgins scores more
37%

D. La Serena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. VargasD. La SerenaD. La Serena · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
Felipe Chamorro
11'
Felipe ChamorroCard upgrade
29'
Felipe Ogaz
30'
Moisés González
37'
R. Godoy← Felipe Ogaz
45'
J. Vargas↳ A. Henriquez
54'
J. Vargas↳ S. Diaz
60'
N. FerreyraOwn goal
61'
F. Faundez← M. Gonzalez
70'
M. Rivera← G. A. Jara Gonzalez
75'
E. Calderon← Martin Sarrafiore
81'
E. Moreira← A. Henriquez
82'
E. Calderon↳ B. Rabello
83'
Juan Ignacio Díaz
85'
Manuel Rivera
88'
Fernando Dinamarca
89'
B. Mendoza← J. Vargas
90'
C. Gutierrez← F. Dinamarca
90'
E. Moreira↳ M. Rivera
90'
E. Calderon↳ J. Leiva

Possession

35%D.

Shots

15D.

Pass accuracy

46%D.

Statistics

D.O'Higgins
Overview
35%Possession65%
15Total Shots24
1.24Expected Goals (xG)2.38
3Corners9
8Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots24
6On Target5
5Off Target12
4Blocked7
8Inside Box15
7Outside Box9
Passing
35%Possession65%
258Total Passes473
177Accurate Passes386
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs O'Higgins

D. La Serena and O'Higgins drew 3-3 in Primera División on August 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Vargas (45', 54'), N. Ferreyra (60' o.g.), E. Calderon (82', 90'), E. Moreira (90').

O'Higgins controlled possession (65%) and registered 24 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.