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D. La Serena vs O'Higgins — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
F. Andrada 89'
7/3/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

D. La Serena37%
×Draw27%
O'Higgins37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.27
O'Higgins
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 114 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.18
O'Higgins
1.21

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.34
O'Higgins
1.37

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

O'Higgins →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
63%
D. La Serena or O'Higgins
73%
Draw or O'Higgins
63%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
16%
O'Higgins wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
72%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
36%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
14%
O'Higgins 1+ goals
72%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
36%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
50%
O'Higgins (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 68 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.18 + O'Higgins defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

O'Higgins attack 1.21 + D. La Serena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

D. La Serena scores more
37%
level
27%
O'Higgins scores more
37%

D. La Serena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Z. LópezD. La SerenaD. La Serena · G
7.5

Match Events

20'
Leandro Díaz
28'
Cristóbal Jorquera
33'
Ariel CáceresCard upgrade
34'
Ariel Cáceres
37'
Humberto Suazo
44'
Moisés González
46'
G. Lodico← D. Carrasco
59'
Moisés González
64'
D. González← C. Moya
69'
F. Andrada← C. Jorquera
71'
B. Torrealba← A. Díaz
73'
M. Ramirez← S. Dittborn
80'
F. Barcelo← E. Moreira
80'
F. Arancibia← F. Castro
86'
Jaime Carreño
87'
Victor Ramon← L. Díaz
87'
A. Quiñones← J. Fuentealba
89'
Fausto Grillo
89'
F. Andrada
90+2'
Zacarías López

Possession

44%D.

Shots

8D.

Pass accuracy

46%D.

Statistics

D.O'Higgins
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots16
4Corners4
14Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots16
3On Target3
3Off Target10
2Blocked3
5Inside Box9
3Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
286Total Passes373
193Accurate Passes296
67%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs O'Higgins

D. La Serena beat O'Higgins 1-0 in Primera División on July 3, 2022.

Goals: F. Andrada (89').

O'Higgins controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.