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D. La Serena vs D. Melipilla — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
5/29/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. La Serena46%
×Draw25%
D. Melipilla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.54
D. Melipilla
1.18

D. La Serena creates 31% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 16 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.20
D. Melipilla
1.00

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.35
D. Melipilla
1.88

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
71%
D. La Serena or D. Melipilla
75%
Draw or D. Melipilla
54%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
23%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
79%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
45%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
20%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
69%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
33%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
61%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.20 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + D. La Serena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

D. La Serena scores more
46%
level
25%
D. Melipilla scores more
29%

D. La Serena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: D. La Serena 5–1 D. Melipilla

D. La Serena beat D. Melipilla 5-1 in Primera División on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.