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D. La Serena vs D. Melipilla — Primera B 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
CANC
00:00
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
12/7/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 28Estadio La Portada de La Serena (La Serena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

D. La Serena49%
×Draw27%
D. Melipilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.42
D. Melipilla
0.89

D. La Serena creates 60% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.42
D. Melipilla
1.04

allows per match

D. La Serena
0.73
D. Melipilla
1.42

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
76%
D. La Serena or D. Melipilla
73%
Draw or D. Melipilla
51%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
24%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
76%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
41%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
17%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
59%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
22%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
68%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.42 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + D. La Serena defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

D. La Serena scores more
49%
level
27%
D. Melipilla scores more
24%

D. La Serena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: D. La Serena host D. Melipilla

December 7, 2019: D. La Serena take on D. Melipilla in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

D. La Serena host D. Melipilla at Estadio La Portada de La Serena (La Serena).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.