D. La Serena 1–3 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

S. Gallegos 79'

J. Correa 80'

S. Vegas 72'

V. Pizarro 33'

2/16/2025

Primera División · Round 1Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

D. La Serena32%

×Draw27%

Colo Colo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.35

D. La Serena

1.17

Colo Colo

1.35

Colo Colo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 126 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.20

Colo Colo

1.35

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.35

Colo Colo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

59%

D. La Serena or Colo Colo

73%

Draw or Colo Colo

68%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

13%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

69%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

33%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

11%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

74%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

39%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

44%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.20 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + D. La Serena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. La Serena scores more

32%

level

27%

Colo Colo scores more

41%

Colo Colo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

V. Pizarro

Colo Colo · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

Jeisson Vargas

33'

V. Pizarro↳ M. Bolados

45+2'

Esteban Moreira

49'

Felipe Chamorro

53'

M. Isla← M. Bolados

59'

S. Gallegos← J. Fuentes

59'

Jhonatan Kauan← G. A. Jara Gonzalez

59'

F. Diaz← F. Chamorro

60'

T. Alarcon← O. Opazo Lara

62'

72'

75'

79'

80'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Colo

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots15

5Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target6

5Off Target3

2Blocked6

4Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

335Total Passes496

272Accurate Passes416

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat D. La Serena 3-1 in Primera División on February 16, 2025.

Goals: V. Pizarro (33'), S. Vegas (72'), S. Gallegos (79'), J. Correa (80').

Colo Colo controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Colo Colo