D. La Serena 1–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

S. Dittborn 46'

P. Solari 9'

2/13/2022

Primera División · Round 2Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

D. La Serena32%

×Draw27%

Colo Colo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.35

D. La Serena

1.17

Colo Colo

1.35

Colo Colo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 126 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.20

Colo Colo

1.35

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.35

Colo Colo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

59%

D. La Serena or Colo Colo

73%

Draw or Colo Colo

68%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

13%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

69%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

33%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

11%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

74%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

39%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

44%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.20 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + D. La Serena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. La Serena scores more

32%

level

27%

Colo Colo scores more

41%

Colo Colo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

P. Solari

Colo Colo · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

P. Solari↳ L. Gil

44'

Maximiliano Falcón

46'

M. Zaldivia← M. Falcón

46'

S. Dittborn↳ M. Fernández

56'

C. Zavala← V. Pizarro

57'

Matías Fernández

64'

Gabriel Suazo

73'

R. Paredes← J. Cavallaro

82'

C. Santos← G. Costa

82'

C. Fuentes← L. Gil

88'

C. Jorquera← M. Fernández

90+1'

Brayan Cortés

90+4'

R. Brito← M. Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Colo

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots18

3Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target6

3Off Target6

3Blocked6

7Inside Box14

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

275Total Passes402

176Accurate Passes292

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Primera División: D. La Serena 1–1 Colo Colo

D. La Serena and Colo Colo drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 13, 2022.

Goals: P. Solari (9'), S. Dittborn (46').

Colo Colo controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: D. La Serena 1–1 Colo Colo