D. La Serena 1–0 Cobreloa: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cobreloa

J. Sánchez 60'

3/19/2023

Primera B · Round 6Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

D. La Serena51%

×Draw27%

Cobreloa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchCobreloa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.85

D. La Serena

1.46

Cobreloa

0.85

D. La Serena creates 72% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 107 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

0.73

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.42

Cobreloa

0.97

allows per match

D. La Serena

0.73

Cobreloa

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Cobreloa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

78%

D. La Serena or Cobreloa

73%

Draw or Cobreloa

49%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

26%

Cobreloa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

77%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

43%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

18%

Cobreloa 1+ goals

57%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

21%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

70%

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.49 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.42 + Cobreloa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cobreloa attack 0.97 + D. La Serena defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

D. La Serena scores more

51%

level

27%

Cobreloa scores more

22%

D. La Serena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

L. Carreno

60'

J. Sánchez

65'

G. Gotti← I. Jara

65'

J. Góngora← N. Gauna

65'

K. Harbottle← J. Soto

70'

D. Escalante

72'

K. Flores← L. Carreño

72'

R. Paredes← E. Espinoza

72'

C. Insaurralde← D. Escalante

82'

G. Reyes← M. Guerrero

82'

N. Orrego← M. Villarroel

90+3'

G. Santelices← J. Sánchez

D.

Cobreloa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sánchez

Manager: J. Luvera

72'▲K. Flores←▼L. Carreño

72'▲R. Paredes←▼E. Espinoza

82'▲G. Reyes←▼M. Guerrero

90+3'▲G. Santelices←▼J. Sánchez

D. La Serena substitutes

FloresParedesReyesSantelicesSanhuezaReyesCortés

Manager: E. Astorga

65'▲G. Gotti←▼I. Jara

65'▲J. Góngora←▼N. Gauna

65'▲K. Harbottle←▼J. Soto

72'▲C. Insaurralde←▼D. Escalante

82'▲N. Orrego←▼M. Villarroel

Cobreloa substitutes

GottiGóngoraHarbottleInsaurraldeOrregoPintoVillagrán

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Cobreloa

D. La Serena beat Cobreloa 1-0 in Primera B on March 19, 2023.

Goals: J. Sánchez (60').

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Cobreloa — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Cobreloa