Cobreloa 1–0 D. La Serena: Result & Stats

Cobreloa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

D. La Serena

J. Duma 60'

7/12/2026

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 6Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cobreloa46%

×Draw25%

D. La Serena29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobreloaExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.16

Cobreloa

1.55

D. La Serena

1.16

Cobreloa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

1.57

0.75

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cobreloa

1.31

D. La Serena

1.57

allows per match

Cobreloa

0.75

D. La Serena

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw

71%

Cobreloa or D. La Serena

75%

Draw or D. La Serena

54%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+

23%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals

79%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

46%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

20%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

69%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

32%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

62%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.31 + D. La Serena defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

D. La Serena attack 1.57 + Cobreloa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cobreloa scores more

46%

level

25%

D. La Serena scores more

29%

Cobreloa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

D. Tapia

30'

B. Gutierrez

46'

J. Duma← M. Tapia

55'

M. Marin← B. Sandoval

55'

F. Mac Allister← S. Diaz

60'

J. Duma

66'

B. Contreras← M. Pinto

74'

Y. Salazar

75'

J. Gatica← A. Delgado

75'

V. Conelli← F. Velazco

79'

A. Henriquez

83'

F. Dinamarca← L. Alarcon

83'

A. Oroz← A. Henriquez

90'

Y. Gonzalez← M. Sandoval

90+3'

G. Escalante

90+5'

F. Dinamarca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff